Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
