Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
